Adelina Comas-Herrera and Jose-Luis Fernández (Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science)

17th May 2020

New report estimating the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people who live in care homes in England.

Key findings:

• Data on deaths in care homes directly attributed to COVID-19 underestimate the impact of the pandemic on care home residents, as they do not take account of indirect mortality effects of the pandemic and/or because of problems with the identification of the disease as the cause of death.
• Not all care home residents die in care homes. According to ONS data, 13% of all deaths of care home residents took place in hospitals (28% of residents whose deaths were linked to COVID died in hospitals).
• The number of registered COVID-19 deaths among care home residents in England only accounts for an estimated 54% of all excess deaths in care homes (compared to same period in 2019).
• Total excess mortality taking place in care homes since 28^th December is estimated to be 19,319 (48% of all excess mortality in England), and excess mortality among care home residents was 22,231, 55% of all excess mortality in England.
• This short report has been updated since the first version of the 12^th of May, as the ONS published more detailed data on care home residents on the 15^th May. A more detailed analysis of the new data published by ONS will be added soon.

“Excess mortality” among care home residents in England between 2^nd March and 1^st May (compared to same period in 2019) and number of deaths of care home residents linked to COVID-19.

Source: own calculation based on data from the ONS (see report for details)